Milwaukie area home sales continue to be slow - 2years running now

The pace of home sales slumps in March 2025 - the pace of homes sales in Milwaukie is the lowest in at least six year (only 18 homes in total sold last month).

(Below here is Milwaukie's Home Sale Prices.)

(data provided by Melissa used by Redfin Realty.)

(posted by Elvis Clark - April 29, 2025)

Milwaukie's average Home Sales price continues to hover in and around $500,000 - this last Month March 2025 registering an average sales price of $504,000.

Oregon ranks 44th in terms of home affordability according to the national realtor's association (not good). Here's this ranking report:

Affordability and Homebuilding: State-by-State Report Cards - Realtor.com Economic Research

(posted by El

realtor Nick Shivers Responds to commissions court case

Locally, Prominent Realtor Nick Shivers (Kellers Williams) says that the recent court decision making the cooperation of realtors to establish a baseline of commissions illegal will make it harder for people to buy and sell homes. He says wall street big money investment firms, like Black Stone, will benefit, instead.

His comment about Black Stone occurs at just after the 5 minute mark of the video just below here.

(posted by Elvis Clark on March 21, 2024)

Realtors have to make changes in how they are paid

Realtors have settled a major court case - a court case that accuses the industry of anti-competitive behavior.

Current realtor practice is to charge buyers about 5 to 6 percent in commissions, that 5 to 6 percent being times the selling price of the home and this commission added onto closing costs. So, if a home sells for $400,000, say, then the realtor commissions (split between buyer and selling realtor agents most usually by standard form) adds another $20,000 to $24,000 to the cost of the home purchase for the buyer.

With this new court case settlement, home buyers will not be given the standard nationally and state approved realtor commission forms. But maybe the negotiation of commissions by the buyer will become a part of the process.

Only time will tell whether this court case settlement actually reduces the cost of buying a home.

Below is the Wall Street Journal reporting on this Realtor commission cost court case settlement and how this home market change might play out over time (see below "RealtorsSettle24Mar" in pdf format).

(posted by Elvis Clark on March 17, 2024)

RealtorsSettle24Mar (pdf)

Download

Mortgage Interest rates head back up towards 7%

The Federal Reserve Continues to hike interest rates to slow inflation, via slower housing market

The Wall Street Journal reports today (5/26/23) that a 30 year fixed rate mortgage is now averaging 7.25%. But other sources indicate an average just under 7% interest.

I have a family relative who locked in recently at 6.75%.

This morning, Friday 5/26/23, the Commerce Department reports that U.S inflation is still running at close to a rate of 5% per year, while the Federal Reserve is wanting the inflation rate to be much lower at 2%.

So, it now seems likely the Fed will raise short term interest rates to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, up 0.25% (Quarter point), at its next meeting scheduled for June 13-14, 2023.

(posted by Elvis Clark on May 26, 2023)

Interest Rates go higher, & housing market may be slowing

The interest rate on a ten year Treasury note has nearly doubled in just the last few months

Mortgage rates are tied to the U.S ten year treasury, and with the interest rate on a treasury note increasing sharply; mortgage rates have increased from the mid 3 percent range to over 6%. There are signs already that the spike in mortgage rates and interest borrowing costs are already softening the pace of home price increases in our local Milwaukie area.

In one case, just this past week the asking price of a house in the Lewelling neighborhood has been cut by 5%. Here's the link to this house-asking-price cut:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/9202-SE-42nd-Ave-Milwaukie-OR-97222/48214517_zpid/

In another case in the Ardenwald neighborhood, a plan to build and sell 5 cottage cluster homes (800 square feet each with $400,000 asking price each) on an over-sized lot is dropped altogether, and now the lot with old house destined for demolition is being re-sold.

Here's a link to this lot and dilapidated house for sale:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4103-SE-Olsen-St-Milwaukie-OR-97222/48209517_zpid/

Something like 20% of home purchases in our area have been by investors in recent years- these investors looking to rent out the homes (or demolish and re-develop) and eventually sell at a higher price a few or more years later. But for these investors, now borrowing costs for buying/investing in homes are substantially higher, and this causes these investors to pull back from buying houses. I suspect if the U.S Federal Reserve hikes interest rates much more that housing prices could very likely fall ten percent from current levels.

(posted by Elvis Clark on June 17, 2022)

Oregon's Millennials Are in the Home Buying stage of life

I would favor developing new communities offering the "American Dream" to young families

The Urban Growth Boundary has not allowed for many new subdivisions to be developed since the Urban Growth Boundary comes into existence some three decades or so ago now.

Instead an almost doubling of the Portland Metro area population has been re-directed to compete for limited housing supply within the urban core areas of Portland.

The fall out has been lack of land for new economic development and lack of a bypass highway around the center of the City of Portland. Housing and other costs are much higher than otherwise in Portland because of constrained land availability. This despite there being plentiful undeveloped land available on the fringes of the Portland Metro area.

Just recently Intel Corporation, one of Oregon's largest employer and with high wages and salary, is forced to expand elsewhere because there isn't enough unrestricted land in the Portland Metro area (specifically Washington County near its existing facilities).

These new subdivisions could be planned with nice green street scapes. A network of dedicated bicycle lanes (for the latest in electric bicycle technology) would reduce dependency on single occupancy automobile commutes. The young family could garden and grow their own vegetables and fruits.

It is time to step up and build out the fringes of the Portland Metro area, allowing for young families to gain the economic prosperity of the American Dream.

(posted by Elvis Clark on March 15, 2022)