My take on the above answers:
Roberts keeps hammering that the County needs more revenues, which could spell tax increases. But Smith is adamant about holding the line on taxes.
I really like Schrader's emphasis on Economic Prosperity.
You see that Incumbent Commissioner Mark Shull who is seeking re-election is not included in Milwaukie Review's candidate survey.
Milwaukie Review and its staff have been very hard on Commissioner Shull, trying to cancel him because of a couple of questionable Facebook postings he had before he is even elected to office - postings that the Chair of the County Democrat Party made a big deal of in an effort to get rid of Commissioner Shull after he had defeated one of their own in the November 2020.
So, Commissioner Shull justifiably in my opinion refuses to participate in Milwaukie Review's reporting.
See next panel on side of here, for question 2. And Question 3 is in the panel just below here.
My take on the above answers:
Roberts complains about Clackamas County's deciding against the proposed Metro funded Project Turnkey, which is in the vane of the Home First Policies - which have a rather a tattered record in the City of Portland. Smith responds by saying that the County has been reducing homelessness and is building treatment and recovery centers. Schrader and Fireside seem to agree that Clackamas is being successful in reducing homelessness and treating addiction.
(posted by Elvis Clark on May 16, 2024)
The candidates answer with a mix of yes and no. Roberts waves the flag of Equity and Inclusion as does Schrader, I guess for keeping up appearances; while Smith says it is being addressed through the Human Resources department by staff dedicated to upholding Civil Rights.
(posted by Elvis Clark on May 16, 2024)
The above table here Shows how many votes have been turned in so far to Clackamas County Elections office. Based on the last presidential election year (2020) and the May 2020 Primary Election turnout percentage of 47.5%, I suspect that the 18,000-plus votes turned in so far (through May 10, 2024) to the Clackamas Elections office will end up representing 12 % of the final vote count.
(posted by Elvis Clark on May 11, 2024.)
Tootie Smith and Craig Roberts are in a real battle to win the Clackamas County Chair election this year. Both have upped their campaign finances to nearly $100,000 a piece. They both have enough campaign monies to fund mailers and maybe a few radio ad spots in the next two weeks or so.
Meanwhile, the race for Clackamas County Commission seat # 4 remains in the low range of campaign funding. Incumbent Commissioner Shull is running a one-of-a-kind campaign, vowing to not be owned by campaign donors and thus not accepting campaign donations. It is a pretty bold move by Commissioner Shull.
Shull and Irvine are both Republicans, and so, Irvine I think takes some votes from Shull. Fireside is the dominant Democrat in the race for Commission seat #4, but she might lose a few votes to Rae Gordon, another Democrat in the race for seat #4. It would not be surprising if none of the four candidates for seat #4 end up in this May's primary election garnering more than 50% of the vote. In this case, the top two vote getters would face off in this coming November's General election.
The other Clackamas May election of particular interest is occurring in the race for the Republican party nomination to run for Oregon House Representative District 51 position. (Oregon House District 51 covers the cities of Canby, Estacada, and Sandy among other south and eastern parts of Clackamas County.)
This Republican race is between former state representative and 2022 gubernatorial candidate, Christine Drazen; and incumbent state representative, James Heib.
Drazen has been tapping donations from the timber industry and other big donors she established relations with in her 2022 bid to be Oregon's Governor. Drazen lost by only a few percentage points to current Governor Kotek in the November 2022 Oregon Governor election.
James Heib may have more grass roots support than Drazan, having come up just one Clackamas Republican caucus vote shy of the two-thirds needed for the County party's endorsement over Drazan.
(posted by Elvis Clark on May 3, 2024)
You may have received in the mail, this week, a campaign flyer from Melissa Fireside - a candidate for Clackamas Commission position #4. (Fireside's Flyer pictured just above here.)
The flyer is in this dark purple/black hue. I suspect that Fireside is another authoritarian, collectivist type - the type Oregon's governance is already too dominated by. And so, the darkness of Fireside's campaign flyer seems reflective of someone who is power hungry and wanting to take away people's freedom and liberties.
Contrast Fireside's campaign flyer against Martha Schrader's campaign flyers - Schrader also being a Democrat and being the hands down favorite to win Clackamas County Commission seat # 3. Schrader's campaign flyers are bright and cheery.
God help us if Fireside wins a spot on the Clackamas County Commission, or any other government office.
Here's the link to KGW's interview of Chair Tootie Smith:
Tootie Smith seeks reelection as Clackamas County board chair | kgw.com
I let you be the judge of who seems more in command of the current situation with Clackamas County and its County government (KGW's interview of Roberts is in the opposite panel from here).
I will say, however, that Tootie has not in her time on the Clackamas Board supported a property tax increase.
Here's the link to KGW's interview of retired Sheriff Craig Roberts (challenger, just above here):
Former Clackamas County Sheriff vies for commission chair | kgw.com
I do note that while Clackamas County Sheriff, Craig Roberts did ask voters for and receive an increase in County property taxes.
(posted by Elvis Clark on April 20, 2024)
(In the above photo, Chair Smith (left) is seen replying to a barb toss at her by former Sheriff Roberts (right) with county worker Lambert seating between the two.)
The Roberts and Smith debate is normal political dumping on each other. So, I can't say the average voter could make up their minds in the County Chair election based on this particular debate.
I support re-electing Chair Tootie Smith, as she guided the County through some tough times with the Covid pandemic, Clackamas ice storm, and forest fires.
I am not sure that either Roberts or Smith can get 50% plus one to win the County Chair position outright in this May's Primary. If no one achieves the 50% threshold than the top two finishers run against each other in this November's General Election. I kind of think Lambert might take more votes from Roberts than Smith, giving Smith a fair chance of getting more than the 50% threshold in this May's Primary and sealing her re-election.
(posted by Elvis Clark on April 12, 2024)
(In the above photo, Melissa Fireside is far-left, Rae Gordon whose vies is blocked by white haired gentleman is middle-left, Tina Irvine is middle-right, and incumbent Shull is far right. And isn't this ironic, the two republicans Shull and Irvine are seated right, and the two Democrats are seated left?)
There is only one point of sparring in the Position #4 debate this last Monday (4/8/2024). Fireside for some reason said temporary jobs are bad, while Irvine took that personal as Irvine used to run a temporary employment business in Clackamas.
Commissioner Shull was very detailed in his answers to the Lake Oswego Chamber of Commerce moderator. Commissioner Shull told me afterwards he was fighting a headache the day of the debate, and so seemed kind of subdued and unsmiling.
I am really not sure that any of the four candidates for Clackamas Board position 4 wins 50% or more in this May's primary election. Commissioner Shull has been subject to a media intent on Canceling him for a few questionable Facebook postings in the years before his election. But Commissioner Shull has done a real good job at saving the County monies, and he is very popular in the rural parts of the County, as opposed to the Woke urban areas of the County.
Irvine likely takes more votes from Shull than the other two Democrat candidates (Fireside and Gordon). Gordon, on the other hand, probably takes more votes from Fireside than the two Republican candidates (Shull and Irvine).
Fireside has never won an election, having come in fourth in the last Lake Oswego Council elections in 2022. But she has the endorsement of some pretty high profile Democrat officials like Senator Merkley and others of the Democrat political leadership.
So, if I had to bet, I would say that none of the four candidates achieves 50% or more of the vote in this May's Primary, and that it is likely that Incumbent Commissioner Shull will face off against Fireside in this November's General Election.
There is a Third Clackamas Board Seat up for election, but I don't really cover much, because I most definitely believe Incumbent Commissioner Martha Schrader will easily win re-election in this May's primary (gathering well over 50% of the vote).
Clackamas County Commissioner Shull is a doer and a no-nonsense lawmaker. Commissioner Shull is a logger in his younger days, a bronze star veteran having served in Iraq as a lieutenant colonel (helping save the lives of U.S soldiers), builds his own house with his own hands and serves Clackamas County well since his election in 2020.
Commissioner Shull help stop the County from increasing property taxes. He works full time at the County Headquarters poring over the County budget to find savings for valued Clackamas County services such as libraries.
The media and other officials try to cancel him since the day he took office over a couple of concerning Face Book postings back before he is elected in 2020. But Shull apologizes, stands tall in the face of adversity and goes about working for Clackamas on the principles of Equality and freedom of religion embedded in the U.S Constitution as Amended, since the day he took office in January 2021.
I heartedly endorse Commissioner Shull for re-election.
(posted by Elvis Clark on March 30, 2024)
Another candidate... April Lambert, social worker and activist, filed at the last moment to run for Chair of Clackamas County, now held by Tootie Smith. Lambert might on balance take a few votes away from Roberts, who is Clackamas' former and now retired Sheriff and now also runs for Chair of Clackamas County.
Meanwhile, not much has changed financially in the election race for County Commissioner # 4. Irvine is the main challenger to incumbent Mark Shull. Shull is self-financing his campaign and not taking donations for want of not being influenced by those who might donate to his campaign.
Commissioner Shull has already paid for campaign signs and flyers, and so, he just might survive the attempt to cancel him by the woke media.
(the above campaign finance numbers are from the Oregon Secretary of State's office as of yesterday, March 21, 2024)
(posted by Elvis Clark on March 22, 2024)
Lori-Chevez is running for re-election to Oregon U.S Congressional District 5 which covers the Milwaukie area and most of Clackamas County and parts of the western Bend area on into Marion County (Wood Burn area) while also covering small parts of south Multnomah County.
The Hill, this week, reports this excerpt about the upcoming election for Congressional District 5:
"Still, Chavez-DeRemer has the fundraising edge, entering the year with around $1.6 million cash on hand. McLeod-Skinner has slightly outraised Bynum on the Democratic side, with around $242,000 cash on hand at the start of the year to Bynum’s $233,000.
McLeod-Skinner and Bynum are set to face off in Oregon’s May primary to decide which Democrat will head to the general and fight to flip the seat back to blue. "
Will Anderson pictured just above is the only person to file to run for Milwaukie City Council in the special Council upcoming May 2024 election. This special City election will fill one of the five seats on City Council - he will replace interim Councilor Shane Amba - who chooses not to run as he has a full-time job with Metro regional government.
Anderson talked of using the City of Milwaukie to solve mental health problems, to advance the City's climate action plan, and to be supportive of raising property taxes.
The Milwaukie City Council has been composed of two progressive types as Councilor and Mayor, and three moderate Councilors since Mayor Gamba (the climate alarmist) left the City Council back in January 2023.
With Anderson, Milwaukie residents probably go back into a mode of being sacrificed in the name of doing their share to solve global-like problems.
Milwaukie really only has one short coming that needs addressing, and it is a basic function of government - namely upgrading and maintaining a quality road system.
I had hoped Corey Hester would run for the open Council seat this May to provide some competition to Anderson. Hester seems like a down to earth, common-sense type of fellow. But Hester did not file to run it seems. Hester had interviewed for the interim Council position and had agreed to run for this Council position in the May Special City Council election, if he had been chosen by Council as the interim Councilor.
All this said. You know sometimes you get surprised by a newly elected official.
For instance, a lot of fundamentalists like me thought Tina Kotek would govern strictly to the far left (like progressive policies, that is) once she became Oregon's Govenor. But while she has had those moments, she has actually also made some decisions more common sense-like. For instance, Kotek has tried to get legislation passed, as Governor, that would expand the urban growth boundary to allow more housing to be built... and just this last week, Kotek ordered a stop in the obtuse and convoluted tolling plans developed by the Oregon Transportation Department.
So, who knows...Maybe Anderson will surprise us. I have had casual conversation with him, and he seems personable. But ugh, that save-the-world stuff is what made the City of Portland the dystopia it is today.
Last Saturday (3/9/24) I got a call from the Oregon Republican party asking me to file to run for Oregon House of Representatives District 41 - a position now held by former Milwaukie Mayor Mark Gamba.
The Republican party is trying to stay visible in Oregon, even though it has not had any real power in Oregon since the mid-00s.
The Republican Party stands for individual rights and freedom, and not the more collectivist approach of the modern-day Oregon Democrat Party.
So, I reluctantly agreed to carry the torch for individual rights and freedom once more.
Both Gamba (D) and myself (R) are unopposed in our Primary party nomination races for House District 41. So, more than likely we will face off this upcoming Fall, with the General Election occurring this November 2024.
The chance of a Republican winning House District 41 is pretty close to slim and none, because registered Democrat voters outnumber Republican voters in House District 41 by a 5 to 1 ratio.
The North Clackamas Chamber of Commerce endorses Tina Irvine for the Clackamas County Commission seat now held by Mark Shull - who seeks re-election.
I think the Chamber makes a mistake in this endorsement. Commissioner Shull has actually been good for Clackamas businesses. He helped stop property tax increases and a homeless, addiction motel disaster up near the Clackamas Town Center.
Commissioner Shull, I have witnessed myself, works pretty hard in finding savings in the Clackamas County budget to lower the need for a County property tax increase and also to fund things like rural libraries in the County.
Commissioner Shull suffers from Cancel Culture, as he posted on Face Book in the years before getting elected to the County Commission his worry about Sharia law making its way to government policy - in the case of the state of Minnesota.
Commissioner Shull to my knowledge has not discriminated against anybody in his three years on the Clackamas Board of County Commissioners.
Tina Irvine has no elected government experience, and yet wins the endorsement of the North Clackamas Chamber of Commerce.
Meanwhile, the Chamber isn't endorsing either Tootie Smith (incumbent and Chair of Clackamas County) nor her main opponent Craig Roberts - former Clackamas County Sheriff.
Nor is the Chamber endorsing the incumbent Clackamas Sheriff, Angela Brandenburg, or her main opponent Lynn Schoenfield in the upcoming May 2024 Clackamas Sheriff race. There is another man running for Clackamas Sheriff, named Paul Moore - who has campaigned quite a bit. I can't see Moore winning the Sheriff's spot, nor even coming in second. But his campaign might have a significant impact on the eventual outcome of the Clackamas Sheriff election.
(posted by Elvis Clark on March 14, 2024)
James Hieb above here has served a little over two years now as Oregon Hosue District 51's representative. He is the salt of the earth in my book, and he gracefully accepts the election challenge he is getting from his fellow Republican (Drazan) in this May 2024 upcoming primary election.
Here's OPB's reporting on Christine Drazan entering the Republican Primary election race for House District 51:
Drazan seeks return to Oregon House, plans to challenge Hieb in primary - OPB
Notice how courteous Hieb is to Drazen, upon learning of her challenge to him by her? My impression is that this Hieb's true character. (I have talked to both candidates at various times over the last couple of years and can say they are both good people.)
Oregon House District 51 stretches from Canby to Sandy in Clackamas County (Oregon) and includes the city of Estacada. This District leans republican in voter registration, and so the winner of May 2024's Republican primary between Hieb and Drazan should end up winning the seat in the November 2024 General Election.
In my mind, Christine Drazen should run for a different office than Oregon House District 51 - a higher office like maybe Oregon Secretary of State. For her it represents a step backwards to a position she has already held.
So, I root for Hieb to win over Drazan.
Drazen starts her campaign with $67,000 in cash while Hieb only has $2,000 in cash on hand.
One last note:
Hieb is an Iraqi war vet who has at times suffered PTSD. But he seems to overcome his war stress infliction.
Also Representative Hieb lost two of siblings to drug overdoses and works now to combat the rampant drug addiction problem afflicting many of the state and nation's cities. Here's an interview of Representative Hieb concerning the new anti-drug legislation that is likely to become law when Governor Kotek signs off on it - the Oregon legislature having passed the legislation this past week:
(posted by Elvis Clark on March 8, 2024)
It turns out that some 20% of voters in the 2020 presidential election say they voted for someone else (like a friend, family member, or other) and similarly, a substantial portion of voters cast their vote in a state other than their state of residency. 2 major election violations that probably wrongly impacted the stated, recognized result of the 2020 presidential election.
The Conclusion of Heartland's research is that there is more than an 80% probability that Trump actually won the 2020 presidential election, and not Biden as officially decided and made president.
Here's the link to the Heartland Institute research study weighing the validity of the 2020 presidential election:
2024-PTS-Election2020-1.pdf (heartland.org)
(posted by Elvis Clark on February 15, 2024)
House Bill 2002 is a horrible piece of legislation which allows public school counselors, teachers and other state employees to hide from parents that they may be providing their children with puberty blockers, lining up abortions for their children or lining up transgender surgeries. It is plain Orwellian state government stuff. It is passed by Democrats in the Oregon State Senate, Oregon House of Representatives, and signed into law by Governor Kotek (D).
Republicans objected and were on the verge of stopping its passing into law; when some of the state Republican Senators (like the Minority Speaker Tim Knopp) decide to return to the Oregon Senate floor giving the Senate a quorum to pass HB2002 out of the Senate. (Senator Knopp's photo is to the right here.)
These 5 state Republican senators who returned to give the Senate Democrats a quorum (enough senators present, that is) had already been absent more than ten days when they decided to return to the state senate. Measure 113 passed by Oregon voters in November 2022 disqualifies Senators from being able to run for re-election if they are absent more than ten days during a legislative session. For some reason the five state senators thought they could sue and overturn Measure 113, so that they could indeed run for re-election in this year's 2024 elections.
Well, today, the Oregon Supreme Court upheld Measure 113, and a number of incumbent state republican Senators cannot now seek re-election this year. At the time that the 5 state Republican senators returned from their walkout, most Republican party members were flabbergasted at the logic of these state senators returning. Here's the link to OPB's reporting on the Oregon Supreme Court Decision Upholding Measure 113:
What is bewildering for the Republican party rank and file is that if you are going to give up your job in protest of something bad like (HB2002), why wouldn't you actually stick with it and stop the passing of HB2002 by continuing to deny quorum. How could these 5 state republican senators think that Measure 113 wouldn't end up being upheld by the Oregon Supreme Court. Very baffling.
Now that the Republican Senator incumbents can't run for re-election, the Oregon's Senate is in jeopardy of being totally taken over by the Democrat Party. The only thing that can stave off absolute power is the Oregon House maintaining a less than super majority for the Democrat Party.
Oregon's governance is already a dumpster fire because of one party rule. And now it may just continue for the foreseeable future, and all for nothing because of feckless Senate Republican leadership.
(posted by Elvis Clark on February 1, 2024)
Nicodemus (photo above) is elected to Milwaukie City Council in November 2020. He governed to the left, favoring Diversity Equity and Inclusion. But other than this, he managed with a level head.
He would have had to run for re-election this coming November 2024. But with a name like Desi Nicodemus, he would have easily won...no doubt about it.
There will be a special election to replace Nicodemus in May 2024, that being the May Primary Election. Whoever wins in May will have to run again this Fall in the November 2024 General election.
I am thinking of filing just to get in the voter pamphlet and write to Milwaukie residents to change some of the City's current priorities. I want more focus on improving the many poor quality neighborhood streets in Milwaukie.
Here's part of Nicodemus' resignation letter:
"It is with a mixture of gratitude and a heavy heart that I submit my resignation from the City Council. I have thoroughly enjoyed the experience and opportunities to serve our community during my tenure on the council. However, recent developments have led me to reevaluate my priorities, and I have come to the difficult decision to step down from this role.
As you may be aware, I have recently taken on a new responsibility that demands a significant amount of my time and attention – returning to the classroom as a third grade teacher. Balancing the responsibilities of City Council and my teaching duties has proven to be an overwhelming challenge, and I have found myself unable to fulfill both roles with the dedication and effectiveness that they deserve."
(posted by Elvis Clark on January 12, 2024)
Jamie-Mcleod Skinner (D) lost to Laurie Chavez-Deremer (R) in the General Election of 2022 - for the position of U.S Congress person representing Congressional District 5 (covering much of Clackamas County, Deschutes County and Marion Conty).
Mcleod Skinner's photo is above here.
Mcleod-Skinner runs against Janelle Bynum (Oregon House Representative) and Lynn Peterson (Metro President) in this coming May's Democrat Party nomination election for Congressional District 5. Most likely, the winner of this primary will challenge incumbent Chavez-Deremer in this November 2024 General Election.
In the following Willamette Week article (link below) regarding supposed bad behavior by McLeod-Skinner, a person related to Bynum's campaign is the one bringing the allegations to light against McLeod-Skinner. So, take this soap opera-like-article with a grain of salt. That said, I feel Bynum would give Chavez-Deremer a harder challenge than McLeod-Skinner. (Bynum actually opposes road toll fees, as does Chavez-Deremer; whereas Peterson does not and as for McLeod-Skinner, who knows.)
Here's the link to this Willamette Week article:
Staffers Allege Jamie McLeod-Skinner’s Driver Feared Physical Violence From Her (wweek.com)
The Oregon legislature in the year 2019 enacted a tax on gross business receipts called the Corporate Activity Tax, or also called the CAT Tax. No doubt this tax is mostly passed on to the customers of businesses - for instance, Pennies and Macys and your natural gas and electric utilities.
Prior to passing the CAT Tax in 2019, the legislature had previously tried enacting a CAT tax; but this prior attempt was defeated as a Referendum Petition with voters voting it down. But subsequent to this CAT Tax defeat, the legislature decided to largely enact it in a slightly less egregious form. So, the Oregon legislature imposed a tax that voters had only a couple years before-hand voted against.
Clackamas Commissioner Shull is running for re-election in this upcoming May 2024 Primary, and in the following link presents his view against the state-wide CAT Tax:
https://fb.watch/pduxD7DZiM/?mibextid=2JQ9oc
(posted by Elvis Clark on December 28, 2023)
Chair Tootie's campaign has a larger debt than it has in cash. But Tootie also has the Clackamas County Chair job that pays her something like $125,000 per year in salary and benefits. The same goes for Commissioner Shull.
Clackamas Commissioner Shull does not believe in fund raisers, and he plans to let his hard work for the County these last four years entice Clackamas voters to re-elect him as one of their commissioners. Shull may have a great advantage as he is adept at getting his campaign sign posted in big letters along highway 205.
Melissa Fireside who runs to unseat Commissioner Shull received a campaign donation of a couple of hundred dollars from former Clackamas Commissioner Sonya Fischer. So, probably Fischer is not planning to run for election against Commissioner Shull. Melissa Fireside ran for Lake Oswego council last Fall but ended up coming in fourth place. She doesn't have a lot of name recognition.
Campaign dollar amounts above here are ascertained from the Oregon Secretary of State website.
(posted by Elvis Clark on December 7, 2023)
Tootie now really has her work cut out for her to beat back the challenge from Craig Roberts.
She leads Clackamas County for the last three years. A fair assessment is that Chair Smith helped guide the County through some real challenges during her nearly three years as Chair - such as finding shelter and care for those Clackamas residents displaced by the 2020 wildfires. Not to mention, she helped steer the County through the second and third years of the Covid Pandemic in 2021 and on into 2022.
During her tenure, Clackamas' homelessness count has dropped much faster than that of neighboring counties. And she has kept her promise to NOT increase taxes for Clackamas residents.
Roberts as Sheriff did have some controversy in his department, as pointed out in this 2017 Oregonian article, link:
Detective ignored rape, abuse cases for years, documents show - oregonlive.com
Craig Roberts was Clackamas County's Sheriff for 16 years and retired from the Sheriff position in 2021. His understudy Angela Brandenburg won the Sheriff position in the election of 2020 and took over from Roberts in January 2021.
Roberts seems like a moderate Democrat. I suspect, though, he would try to increase property taxes and other fees. He will have union support I believe in his bid to defeat Tootie Smith. And so, Roberts will likely dominate Tootie Smith in raising and spending campaign monies.
Maybe he was coaxed to come out of retirement to replace Tootie Smith, because Tootie and other Clackamas Commissioners scaled back Sheriff Bradenburg's budget request - ridding the Sheriff's department of excess, unfilled staff positions. Maybe Sheriff Bradenburg coaxed her former boss to come out of retirement and enter the 2024 election and defeat Chair Smith, so that Bradenburg can restore her department's big budget.
Democrats wanted Tootie Smith and other Clackamas Commissioners to request a property tax increase from voters, so the County wouldn't have to pare back department budgets (Like the Sheriff's Budget). The County faces budget struggles because it is trying, among other things, to finance the building of a new Clackamas Court House to replace the unsafe existing Court House (the existing Court House being nearly 100 years old now). Tootie and other Commissioners stood their ground and didn't press to sharply increase property tax bills.
(posted by Elvis Clark on October 28, 2023)
At this point, Clackamas Chair Tootie Smith has no opponents who have filed to run against her in next May's Board elections.
Commissioner Shull has two opponents so far, and I would say only one significant opponent in Melissa Fireside (Fireside is in photo to right here and Shull's photo is above here).
(posted by Elvis Clark on September 29, 2023)
Psychologist Fireside ran for Lake Oswego City Council in 2020, and lost coming in fourth with 18% of the vote.
But she has the backing of ASCME (government employee) union and has served on Clackamas Committees for government employee compensation and mental health services. So, should be significant opponent for Commissioner Shull.
I should think, though, that Shull can argue that Clackamas is doing pretty well with its current set of commissioners and that Fireside probably would upset the new approach that Clackamas pursues on homelessness, addiction, and mental health. Fireside probably would be quick to raise taxes and the cost of living in Clackamas, too.
To the right here is the list of candidates who have filed so far to run for Clackamas County government positions. Current Chair of the Clackamas County Board of Commissioners, Tootie Smith, has no competitors so far.
Martha Schrader incumbent Clackamas Commissioner has two opponents so far. Martha has strong name recognition, having served as a Clackamas Commissioner for some 18 years now. Joanna Harbour who has unsuccessfully run several times for U.S Congress is one of Schrader's opponents. Amy Nichols - the other opponent so far - has no elected government experience.
Commissioner Mark Shull has not so far indicated if he is running for re-election, running for Tootie's Chair position, or riding off into the sunset of retirement. Rae Gordon is so far, the only one to file to run for Commissioner Shull's seat. But Gordon has no elected government experience, and maybe as certain as night becomes day, the two dominant political parties will field candidates for Shull's seat.
Clackamas Sheriff Brandenburg is likely to be mildly challenged by two retired deputy sheriffs, Lynn Schoenbach and Paul Moore. Schoenback ran against Brandenburg and lost back in 2020. I am not sure about Moore and the black cowboy hat he dawns almost always when out and campaigning.
Neither Schoenbach nor Moore have made their challenge of Brandenburg official yet by filing with Clackamas elections (so they are not listed to the right here but only known to be campaigning informally at this point).
(posted by Elvis Clark on September 24, 2023)
Clackamas County Chair Tootie Smith is up for re-election this next year and is kicking off her re-election campaign this next week with a private gathering.
Tootie is a tough-minded gal and has stood by her commitment to not raise taxes even in the face of the County's struggle to fund the replacement of an aging courthouse.
Unfortunately, Tootie stepped on the toes of many passionate Republicans at public hearings when she is maybe too quick to end the hearings because of some mask mandate violations by these Republican faithful and crowd noise. So, these ill feelings by the Clackamas Republican Party faithful against Tootie doesn't bode particularly well for her re-election.
The other seat on the Clackamas Board of Commissioners up for re-election this next year is Commissioner Shull's seat. Commissioner Shull indicates that he will be making his plans known in the next couple of weeks or so.
Lynn Schoenbach is running for Clackamas County Sheriff in next May 2024 primary election. He is a retired Clackamas County Sheriff's sergeant, and also the owner of a martial arts academy (Black Wolf) located in Milwaukie, Oregon.
This academy is frequented by both Milwaukie Police and Clackamas Deputy Sheriffs for training in personal defense.
Schoenback is running not only I think against the current Sheriff Bradenburg, but also a retired state trooper Paul Moore (who routinely dawns a black cowboy hat).
It's Schoenbach's second run at County Sheriff - the first being in 2020.
(posted by Elvis Clark on September 6, 2023)
Mcleod-Skinner (Progressive Democrat) lost to Laurie chevez-Deremer (R) in the November 2022 General Election by only a couple of percentage points. McLeod-Skinner lives in Sisters, Oregon, the last I hear.
Mcleod-Skinner has name recognition from the previous contest for CD#5 and slightly won in Clackamas County in the 2022 General Election. But Chevez-Deremer dominated in the Marion County part of CD#5 and was able to edge out McLeod-Skinner in total District wide vote count.
Lynn Peterson (Democrat) is the current president of Oregon's Metro regional government, and I think she and her husband might live in Lake Oswego.
Peterson, who is also a former Clackamas County Commissioner, is competing against Mcleod-Skinner and Oregon Representative Janelle Bynum for the Democrat Party May 2024 Primary nomination to run in the November 2024 General Election - for Congressional District 5.
Peterson probably can raise considerable money for campaigning, but a lot of folks in Clackamas County (the key part of District 5) don't have a very high opinion of the Metro government that Peterson leads. Also, Peterson voted in favor of tolling both I-5 and I-205.
Peterson is probably trying to find a new elected office to land in, as she terms out of her Metro President role in 2026.
(posted by Elvis Clark on July 14, 2023)
Bynum (D) is known around Happy Valley but not so much in the larger parts of Congressional District 5.
Interestingly, Bynum defeated Lauri Chevez-Deremer (current incumbent holding the CD#5 seat) in the 2018 election for Oregon House District 39.
Bynum actually voted against Oregon's road toll legislation.
I think Mcleod-Skinner probably wins in next May's Democrat Party primary against both Peterson and Bynum.
Chevez-Deremer lives just outside of Congressional District 5, but election rules allow her to run for the District anyways.
She is a very diligent and engaging Congresswoman and is working to stop the tolling of federal highways I-5 and I-205.
Democrats have about a 5 percentage point edge over Republican registrations in Congressional District 5, and so it is an uphill battle for Chevez-Deremer to win re-election next year. But going in her favor is that she is now an incumbent with experience and engages with Democrat officials in District 5.
She has, also, already secured nearly one million dollars in cash for her re-election bid.
I doubt if Chevez-Deremer faces much primary opposition from Republican candidates this next year.