Clackamas Chair race is well financed

Meanwhile, campaign financing subdued for the Clackamas Commissioner #4 race - favors Shull?

The Clackamas County Chair race is a runoff, determined by last May's Primary Election, between incumbent Chair Tootie Smith (R) and former Clackamas Sheriff Craig Roberts (D).

Roberts collected nearly 49% of the vote this last May while Tootie collected 40%, with a third candidate collecting 10% - such third-place finish resulting in their being eliminated from the November election. Roberts just missed winning outright by not collecting 50% or more of the vote in May.

Given the May results, probabilities seem substantially in favor of Roberts (D) winning the County Chair position. But Tootie might get a boost from Republican turnout in this November's election versus this last May's Primary, when Republican voter turnout was particularly subdued for lack of a competitive presidential primary - meaning Trump (R) is all alone on the Republican ticket whereas this November he competes against the Democrat Harris.

Meanwhile, incumbent Clackamas Commissioner Mark Shull (R) faces off in a runoff against Fireside (D) in the other County Commission race.

Shull got 37% of the vote in May against Fireside's 36% of the vote. But Shull might have won re-election outright if not for a challenge by another Republican who collected 17% of the vote. So, campaign finances are important as we go to the last days of this General Election season. Fireside only has a few thousand dollars on hand to campaign with (as of mid-September). Shull is largely self-financed and has got his big campaign signs posted on warehouses along I-205 and Highway 212.

Currently the Clackamas Commission is in the conservative camp, with four of the five seats held by Republicans. But if Roberts wins the Chair spot and Shull wins re-election to his Commission seat, then the Commission will shift to center from right leaning. This is because Commissioner Savas (R) quite often walks the fence on the issue of taxation.

I have heard through the grapevine that Commissioner Savas is not likely to seek re-election when his current term expires at the end of 2026.

Control of the County Commission is important for a number of reasons but hugely for being able to avoid County property tax increases and keeping Milwaukie in check against its resolution to ban natural gas service in Milwaukie.

(posted by Elvis Clark on September 26, 2024)

More on Bresaw ... and Measure 115 raises flags

Bresaw runs for Milwaukie City Council, challenging aspiring politician Will Anderson

Just below this section is more on the Milwaukie City Council election race between Teresa Bresaw and Will Anderson.

The Newly released Clackamas County Voter Pamphlet (on-line) gives hints that maybe Bresaw is more prudent about spending the City budget on items outside basic services such as police, library, parks, water and sewer.

Here's a quote from her Voter Pamphlet statement:

"The basic services and paying fair labor to the workers cannot be neglected in the quest to keep improving Milwaukie and adding amenities. The budget has to balance! Housing needs are bringing greater density to our city and the implications for change need to be carefully considered to balance out the conflicting needs of both new and existing residents."

Maybe there will be a candidate forum for Milwaukie's 2 election races. Stay Tune.

(posted by Elvis Clark on September 20, 2024)

Measure 115 sounds good but could be used to increase one party rule in Oregon

Bresaw runs for Milwaukie City Council, challenging aspiring politician Will Anderson

I recommend voting NO on Measure 115, which will be on this November's Election Ballot.

Currently, an Oregon legislator or major state office holder can be removed by Oregonians issuing a recall for this legislator and collecting enough registered voter signatures to have a recall vote - with a yes for recall in the majority causing the legislator's removal.

A legislator can also be banned for a session for disobeying a legislature rule on misconduct during the legislative session. The legislator does have the ability to go to court and contest their removal for alleged misconduct.

Measure 115 if passed by voters would allow the legislature itself to remove a legislator or major public office (Secretary of State, for example) holder permanently - without the right for the legislator or major public office holder to have a court appeal.

Currently, one party (the Democrat Party) has majorities in both houses of the legislature plus the Governor's office. If the dominant party wants to invent reasons to impeach and convict a legislator of the opposite party, then the dominant party increases its tools for forcing legislation.

Milwaukie City Council Election races set for this November

Incumbent city councilor Will Anderson seeks re-election

But at the last moment there is now a challenger to Anderson for his Council seat

Anderson is of Progressive cloth as are to some degree both Mayor Batey and Councilor Stavenjord, giving the existing Milwaukie Council, 3 progressive-like votes for tax and spend policies against 2 moderate votes in Councilors Khosroabadi and Massey.

Milwaukie's decade long pursuit of costly progressive policies has now pushed Milwaukie's government to the point that it is facing huge budget deficits, and causing Milwaukie Council to consider sharp hikes in property taxes for Milwaukie's residents. I mean really sharp increases.

But at the last moment there is now a challenger to Anderson for his Council seat

One Teresa Bresaw has qualified and is running against Anderson for Milwaukie City Council in this upcoming November 2024 General Election.

There is not a lot of information to be had on Teresa Bresaw. I do see that she is active in land use for the Lake Road Neighborhood Association in Milwaukie.

Sounds like she is in her mid-70s. She may be just as progressive, if not more, than Anderson. But at this point I just don't know. We should know more about Bresaw in a couple of weeks when candidates for City Council are scheduled to submit Candidate Information. Stay tuned.

Incumbent Milwaukie Councilor Adam Khosroabadi faces a challenge from a Progressive activist

Councilor Khosroabadi (just above) is a veteran and family man with a young and growing family, who is very mindful of the escalating cost of living in Milwaukie - Sympathetic to holding down taxes and fees. Khosroabadi knows what it is like to struggle to feed and house a family.

He is a former Milwaukie Planning Commissioner.

So, I recommend voting for Khosroabadi in his re-election this November 2024 General Election.

Cam McKone challenges Khosroabadi for the Milwaukie City Council

Incumbent Milwaukie Councilor Adam Khosroabadi faces a challenge from a Progressive activist

Meanwhile, Cam McKone (just above) runs against Councilor Khosroabadi in this November's General Election for Milwaukie City Council.

McKone is big on pushing Milwaukie government to become even more progressive, even though it is progressive policies which have pushed Milwaukie's government to the brink of running huge budget deficits and its looking at imposing huge tax and fee increases on Milwaukie residents to meet its ballooning deficits.

Click 'City Gov News' and then click 'City Hall News' to understand Milwaukie Government's severe budget dilemma.

Here is an excerpt from McKone's Facebook page:

"... Milwaukie needs bold progressive leadership once more.” Source: Camden McKone, his Facebook website.

(posted by Elvis Clark on August 29, 2024)

Measure 116 is on this November's election Ballot - be wary

Measure 116 creates an "Independent Commission" to determine salaries for state officials

I believe Measure 116 falls short of being a good process for establishing the salaries of state representatives, state senators, the Oregon Governor, Oregon Treasurer, Oregon Attorney General, and state judges.

For me, I believe such public salary commission should only establish a base salary for each of the state elected officials, which should be left to stand for a period of say ten years; with annual adjustments for inflation. At the end of ten years, this commission would review and approve a new base rate for a new term of ten years or so, with annual adjustments for inflation.

Too often we see commissions become co-opted and go off track in favor of government and its politicians and employees. Measure 116 seems susceptible to this risk.

So, I recommend voting NO on Measure 116.

Somewhat surprising is that the Oregon Taxpayer Association recommends voting yes on 116

Measure 116 creates an "Independent Commission" to determine salaries for state officials

I usually go with the Oregon Taxpayers Association recommendations, and so this is a rare case where I recommend voting opposite of the Oregon Taxpayers Association.

I talked to the Executive Director of the Oregon Taxpayer Association, Jason Williams, about Measure 116; and while he admits 116 isn't perfect. he believes legislator salaries are too low currently and this is why the Taxpayer Association supports 116.

He said Measure 116 could be better if state office holder salaries were tied to changes in the average level of wages for all Oregon workers.

(posted by Elvis Clark on September 12, 2024)

Rank Choice Voting further delays election results

KOIN reports that Portland's upcoming election using rank choice voting may delay election results

The City of Portland is the guinea pig for using rank choice voting to determine election winners. (The City of Portland's Charter reform calls for Rank Choice Voting, starting this coming November Portland city elections.)

Rank Choice voting only adds to delays in the reporting of election results - adding days if not weeks to the reporting of election results. Here's KOIN's reporting on this problem for rank choice voting:

Portland's ranked-choice voting count could take weeks after Election Day: officials (koin.com)

The U.S Postal Service is already saying it may have delays in delivering ballots to Election offices.

The state of Oregon allows ballots to come in the mail up to 7 days after the election.

Have you ever wondered that you have the U.S Postal Service - a pro-government organization - as a key component in Oregon's mail-in ballot elections, and maybe postal workers don't maybe lose ballots intentionally from neighborhoods whose voters may not be pro-government?

Rank Choice voting could become state-wide if Measure 117 is approved by Oregon voters in this upcoming November General Election. I am hoping Measure 117 is defeated by Oregon voters this November.

(posted by Elvis Clark on August 24, 2024)

Rank Choice Voting is on this November's Election Ballot

Rank Choice radically changes how Oregonians elect their government officials

The state legislature spells out how this new election scheme called rank choice voting would work mathematically (in the text photo just above here.)

I recommend you vote NO against rank choice voting, which will appear on this November's General Election ballot as Measure 117.

With rank choice voting, Voters in the know will try outfoxing other voters to elect candidates most to their liking. Voters who have a hard enough time knowing who is who in politics, the vast majority of all voters, will be at a disadvantage. For the vast majority of voters then, there will be even less interest in voting and/or trusting the election results.

In a way, rank choice voting breaks from the tradition of one person, one vote. Some voters gain at the expense of other less involved voters.

(posted by Elvis Clark on August 8, 2024)

Congresswoman Chevez-DeremeR to debate Bynum 4 times

Lori Chevez-Deremer (R, incumbent, photo below) agrees to debate Janelle Bynum

Janelle Bynum is running to unseat Chevez-Deremer from her U.S Congress seat (CD #5)

U.S. Congress woman Chevez-Deremer (incumbent) may just be the underdog even though she is the incumbent in Congressional District 5 (CD 5).

CD 5 leans democrat party, with Democrat voter registrations exceeding Republican voter registrations.

I am not sure Debates will make much difference in this race. Probably voter turnout between Republicans and Democrats will be the determining factor in who wins CD 5 in this November's General Election.

(posted by Elvis Clark on July 27, 24)

Janelle Bynum is running to unseat Chevez-Deremer from her U.S Congress seat (CD #5)

Bynum ran against Chevez-Deremer for Oregon House of Representatives back in 2020, with Bynum winning a seat in the Oregon House of Representatives.

Both Bynum and Chevez-Deremer will have a ton of campaign monies, to run TV ads with.

At least one of the four debates between Chevez-Deremer & Bynum is already scheduled for October 20, 2024, at 7 pm for an hour. This debate will occur on Bend Oregon station KTVZ.

I will update this post when the other three debate times and place are scheduled.

In the meantime, here is OPB's reporting on the Chevez-Deremer and Bynum debates:

Oregon Rep. Chavez-DeRemer agrees to 4 TV debates with challenger Bynum - OPB

Best Chances for GOP flipping ore. house seats in Clackamas

John Masterman (R) runs for Oregon House District 48 against incumbent Hoa Nguyen (D)

Oregon House District 48 covers the far southeast area of Multnomah County and into the Pleasant Valley, Damascus and Barton in rural area Clackamas County.

Masterman ran for this same House District in the year 2022, and only lost to Nguyen by a few hundred votes. Masterman runs on traditional values and runs his own small business in repair and servicing automobiles per May 2024 voter pamphlet.

There are about 46,000 registered voters in HD 48, and of these 19,000 or so are not registered with a political party (non-affiliates, that is). Democrat registered voters in this district total a little less than 15,000 while Republican registered voters total just over 9,000.

So, Masterman would seem to have a moderate shot at winning against Nguyen, flipping the seat from Democrat to Republican.

(posted by Elvis Clark on June 30, 2024)

Aimee Reiner (R) runs for Oregon House District 39 against April Dobson (D)

John Masterman (R) runs for Oregon House District 48 against incumbent Hoa Nguyen (D)

Oregon House District 39 (HD 39) is dominated by Happy Valley and the surrounding Clackamas areas, west of Happy Valley with west border being Linwood Avenue.

Reiner is a military veteran. I have gotten to know her a bit in the last few years. She is full of life and believes in raising her children in a wholesome environment. She ran for school board previously to get schools back to strictly teaching successful life skills, letting children mature into adults on their own accord rather than being influenced by teachers and others to question their gender and their ethnicity; and be subject to puberty blockers and/or transgender surgery.

Reiner runs for the first time for the Oregon House of Representatives. Janelle Bynum (D) who now runs for Oregon Congressional District 5 against Lori Chevez-Deremer (R) is the current Oregon House District 39 Representative. So, Bynum is giving up her Oregon House (HD 39) seat.

So, Reiner is not running against an incumbent - most generally incumbents have an advantage because they hold the title of the office already. So, this is a plus for Reiner's campaign - not having to run against an incumbent, that is.

There are about 49,000 registered voters in HD 39, and of these, nearly 20,000 are not registered with a political party. Democrat registered voters total nearly 16,000 in HD 39 while Republican registered voters total nearly 11,000.

Reiner has a modest chance then at winning, given these numbers. I plan to help both her and Materman's campaigns as much as I can in the coming months leading up to this November's General Election.

Clackamas Candidate funds & the Dark side of Fireside

Clackamas County Commission Election races look really tight this May

Clackamas candidate Fireside's flyer seems rather ominous, foreboding like

Clackamas County Commission Election races look really tight this May

Tootie Smith and Craig Roberts are in a real battle to win the Clackamas County Chair election this year. Both have upped their campaign finances to nearly $100,000 a piece. They both have enough campaign monies to fund mailers and maybe a few radio ad spots in the next two weeks or so.

Meanwhile, the race for Clackamas County Commission seat # 4 remains in the low range of campaign funding. Incumbent Commissioner Shull is running a one-of-a-kind campaign, vowing to not be owned by campaign donors and thus not accepting campaign donations. It is a pretty bold move by Commissioner Shull.

Shull and Irvine are both Republicans, and so, Irvine I think takes some votes from Shull. Fireside is the dominant Democrat in the race for Commission seat #4, but she might lose a few votes to Rae Gordon, another Democrat in the race for seat #4. It would not be surprising if none of the four candidates for seat #4 end up in this May's primary election garnering more than 50% of the vote. In this case, the top two vote getters would face off in this coming November's General election.

Incumbent Oregon Rep. Heib up against Goliath Drazan

Clackamas candidate Fireside's flyer seems rather ominous, foreboding like

Clackamas County Commission Election races look really tight this May

The other Clackamas May election of particular interest is occurring in the race for the Republican party nomination to run for Oregon House Representative District 51 position. (Oregon House District 51 covers the cities of Canby, Estacada, and Sandy among other south and eastern parts of Clackamas County.)

This Republican race is between former state representative and 2022 gubernatorial candidate, Christine Drazen; and incumbent state representative, James Heib.

Drazen has been tapping donations from the timber industry and other big donors she established relations with in her 2022 bid to be Oregon's Governor. Drazen lost by only a few percentage points to current Governor Kotek in the November 2022 Oregon Governor election.

James Heib may have more grass roots support than Drazan, having come up just one Clackamas Republican caucus vote shy of the two-thirds needed for the County party's endorsement over Drazan.

(posted by Elvis Clark on May 3, 2024)

Clackamas candidate Fireside's flyer seems rather ominous, foreboding like

You may have received in the mail, this week, a campaign flyer from Melissa Fireside - a candidate for Clackamas Commission position #4. (Fireside's Flyer pictured just above here.)

The flyer is in this dark purple/black hue. I suspect that Fireside is another authoritarian, collectivist type - the type Oregon's governance is already too dominated by. And so, the darkness of Fireside's campaign flyer seems reflective of someone who is power hungry and wanting to take away people's freedom and liberties.

Contrast Fireside's campaign flyer against Martha Schrader's campaign flyers - Schrader also being a Democrat and being the hands down favorite to win Clackamas County Commission seat # 3. Schrader's campaign flyers are bright and cheery.

God help us if Fireside wins a spot on the Clackamas County Commission, or any other government office.

KGW interviews Clackamas Chair candidates, smith and Roberts

Tootie Smith here is the incumbent Clackamas County Chair, seeking re-election

Here's the link to KGW's interview of Chair Tootie Smith:

Tootie Smith seeks reelection as Clackamas County board chair | kgw.com

I let you be the judge of who seems more in command of the current situation with Clackamas County and its County government (KGW's interview of Roberts is in the opposite panel from here).

I will say, however, that Tootie has not in her time on the Clackamas Board supported a property tax increase.

Chair Smith's main challenger is retired Clackamas Sheriff, Craig Roberts

Tootie Smith here is the incumbent Clackamas County Chair, seeking re-election

Here's the link to KGW's interview of retired Sheriff Craig Roberts (challenger, just above here):

Former Clackamas County Sheriff vies for commission chair | kgw.com

I do note that while Clackamas County Sheriff, Craig Roberts did ask voters for and receive an increase in County property taxes.

(posted by Elvis Clark on April 20, 2024)

Commissioner shull climbs heights for Clackamas County!

Commissioner Shull seeks re-election. Here he is on a very tall ladder hanging his campaign sign

Clackamas County Commissioner Shull is a doer and a no-nonsense lawmaker. Commissioner Shull is a logger in his younger days, a bronze star veteran having served in Iraq as a lieutenant colonel (helping save the lives of U.S soldiers), builds his own house with his own hands and serves Clackamas County well since his election in 2020.

Commissioner Shull help stop the County from increasing property taxes. He works full time at the County Headquarters poring over the County budget to find savings for valued Clackamas County services such as libraries.

The media and other officials try to cancel him since the day he took office over a couple of concerning Face Book postings back before he is elected in 2020. But Shull apologizes, stands tall in the face of adversity and goes about working for Clackamas on the principles of Equality and freedom of religion embedded in the U.S Constitution as Amended, since the day he took office in January 2021.

I heartedly endorse Commissioner Shull for re-election.

(posted by Elvis Clark on March 30, 2024)

Potpourri of Local election news

Ugh. Change-the-World type headed onto Milwaukie City Council

The North Clackamas Chamber of Commerce backs Shull's opponent.

Ugh. Change-the-World type headed onto Milwaukie City Council

Will Anderson pictured just above is the only person to file to run for Milwaukie City Council in the special Council upcoming May 2024 election. This special City election will fill one of the five seats on City Council - he will replace interim Councilor Shane Amba - who chooses not to run as he has a full-time job with Metro regional government.

Anderson talked of using the City of Milwaukie to solve mental health problems, to advance the City's climate action plan, and to be supportive of raising property taxes.

The Milwaukie City Council has been composed of two progressive types as Councilor and Mayor, and three moderate Councilors since Mayor Gamba (the climate alarmist) left the City Council back in January 2023.

With Anderson, Milwaukie residents probably go back into a mode of being sacrificed in the name of doing their share to solve global-like problems.

Milwaukie really only has one short coming that needs addressing, and it is a basic function of government - namely upgrading and maintaining a quality road system.

I had hoped Corey Hester would run for the open Council seat this May to provide some competition to Anderson. Hester seems like a down to earth, common-sense type of fellow. But Hester did not file to run it seems. Hester had interviewed for the interim Council position and had agreed to run for this Council position in the May Special City Council election, if he had been chosen by Council as the interim Councilor.

All this said. You know sometimes you get surprised by a newly elected official.

For instance, a lot of fundamentalists like me thought Tina Kotek would govern strictly to the far left (like progressive policies, that is) once she became Oregon's Govenor. But while she has had those moments, she has actually also made some decisions more common sense-like. For instance, Kotek has tried to get legislation passed, as Governor, that would expand the urban growth boundary to allow more housing to be built... and just this last week, Kotek ordered a stop in the obtuse and convoluted tolling plans developed by the Oregon Transportation Department.

So, who knows...Maybe Anderson will surprise us. I have had casual conversation with him, and he seems personable. But ugh, that save-the-world stuff is what made the City of Portland the dystopia it is today.

Ugh. I got roped into running for Oregon House District 41

The North Clackamas Chamber of Commerce backs Shull's opponent.

Ugh. Change-the-World type headed onto Milwaukie City Council

Last Saturday (3/9/24) I got a call from the Oregon Republican party asking me to file to run for Oregon House of Representatives District 41 - a position now held by former Milwaukie Mayor Mark Gamba.

The Republican party is trying to stay visible in Oregon, even though it has not had any real power in Oregon since the mid-00s.

The Republican Party stands for individual rights and freedom, and not the more collectivist approach of the modern-day Oregon Democrat Party.

So, I reluctantly agreed to carry the torch for individual rights and freedom once more.

Both Gamba (D) and myself (R) are unopposed in our Primary party nomination races for House District 41. So, more than likely we will face off this upcoming Fall, with the General Election occurring this November 2024.

The chance of a Republican winning House District 41 is pretty close to slim and none, because registered Democrat voters outnumber Republican voters in House District 41 by a 5 to 1 ratio.

The North Clackamas Chamber of Commerce backs Shull's opponent.

The North Clackamas Chamber of Commerce endorses Tina Irvine for the Clackamas County Commission seat now held by Mark Shull - who seeks re-election.

I think the Chamber makes a mistake in this endorsement. Commissioner Shull has actually been good for Clackamas businesses. He helped stop property tax increases and a homeless, addiction motel disaster up near the Clackamas Town Center.

Commissioner Shull, I have witnessed myself, works pretty hard in finding savings in the Clackamas County budget to lower the need for a County property tax increase and also to fund things like rural libraries in the County.

Commissioner Shull suffers from Cancel Culture, as he posted on Face Book in the years before getting elected to the County Commission his worry about Sharia law making its way to government policy - in the case of the state of Minnesota.

Commissioner Shull to my knowledge has not discriminated against anybody in his three years on the Clackamas Board of County Commissioners.

Tina Irvine has no elected government experience, and yet wins the endorsement of the North Clackamas Chamber of Commerce.

Meanwhile, the Chamber isn't endorsing either Tootie Smith (incumbent and Chair of Clackamas County) nor her main opponent Craig Roberts - former Clackamas County Sheriff.

Nor is the Chamber endorsing the incumbent Clackamas Sheriff, Angela Brandenburg, or her main opponent Lynn Schoenfield in the upcoming May 2024 Clackamas Sheriff race. There is another man running for Clackamas Sheriff, named Paul Moore - who has campaigned quite a bit. I can't see Moore winning the Sheriff's spot, nor even coming in second. But his campaign might have a significant impact on the eventual outcome of the Clackamas Sheriff election.

(posted by Elvis Clark on March 14, 2024)

A prominent study says Trump probably won the 2020 election

The Heartland Institute uses survey data and other data to audit the 2020 presidential election

It turns out that some 20% of voters in the 2020 presidential election say they voted for someone else (like a friend, family member, or other) and similarly, a substantial portion of voters cast their vote in a state other than their state of residency. 2 major election violations that probably wrongly impacted the stated, recognized result of the 2020 presidential election.

The Conclusion of Heartland's research is that there is more than an 80% probability that Trump actually won the 2020 presidential election, and not Biden as officially decided and made president.

Here's the link to the Heartland Institute research study weighing the validity of the 2020 presidential election:

2024-PTS-Election2020-1.pdf (heartland.org)

(posted by Elvis Clark on February 15, 2024)

Oregon State Senate republicans goof big time

Remember last June 2023, the state senate Republicans walkout to stop Bill HB2002 - (a sleazy bill)

House Bill 2002 is a horrible piece of legislation which allows public school counselors, teachers and other state employees to hide from parents that they may be providing their children with puberty blockers, lining up abortions for their children or lining up transgender surgeries. It is plain Orwellian state government stuff. It is passed by Democrats in the Oregon State Senate, Oregon House of Representatives, and signed into law by Governor Kotek (D).

Republicans objected and were on the verge of stopping its passing into law; when some of the state Republican Senators (like the Minority Speaker Tim Knopp) decide to return to the Oregon Senate floor giving the Senate a quorum to pass HB2002 out of the Senate. (Senator Knopp's photo is to the right here.)

These 5 state Republican senators who returned to give the Senate Democrats a quorum (enough senators present, that is) had already been absent more than ten days when they decided to return to the state senate. Measure 113 passed by Oregon voters in November 2022 disqualifies Senators from being able to run for re-election if they are absent more than ten days during a legislative session. For some reason the five state senators thought they could sue and overturn Measure 113, so that they could indeed run for re-election in this year's 2024 elections.

Well, today, the Oregon Supreme Court upheld Measure 113, and a number of incumbent state republican Senators cannot now seek re-election this year. At the time that the 5 state Republican senators returned from their walkout, most Republican party members were flabbergasted at the logic of these state senators returning. Here's the link to OPB's reporting on the Oregon Supreme Court Decision Upholding Measure 113:

Oregon Supreme Court rules that Republican senators who walked out last year can’t seek reelection - OPB

What is bewildering for the Republican party rank and file is that if you are going to give up your job in protest of something bad like (HB2002), why wouldn't you actually stick with it and stop the passing of HB2002 by continuing to deny quorum. How could these 5 state republican senators think that Measure 113 wouldn't end up being upheld by the Oregon Supreme Court. Very baffling.

Now that the Republican Senator incumbents can't run for re-election, the Oregon's Senate is in jeopardy of being totally taken over by the Democrat Party. The only thing that can stave off absolute power is the Oregon House maintaining a less than super majority for the Democrat Party.

Oregon's governance is already a dumpster fire because of one party rule. And now it may just continue for the foreseeable future, and all for nothing because of feckless Senate Republican leadership.

(posted by Elvis Clark on February 1, 2024)

Clackamas County Commissioner Shull opposes cat tax

No, it's not a tax for having a cat. It is the Corporate Activity Tax - a sneaky sales tax

The Oregon legislature in the year 2019 enacted a tax on gross business receipts called the Corporate Activity Tax, or also called the CAT Tax. No doubt this tax is mostly passed on to the customers of businesses - for instance, Pennies and Macys and your natural gas and electric utilities.

Prior to passing the CAT Tax in 2019, the legislature had previously tried enacting a CAT tax; but this prior attempt was defeated as a Referendum Petition with voters voting it down. But subsequent to this CAT Tax defeat, the legislature decided to largely enact it in a slightly less egregious form. So, the Oregon legislature imposed a tax that voters had only a couple years before-hand voted against.

Clackamas Commissioner Shull is running for re-election in this upcoming May 2024 Primary, and in the following link presents his view against the state-wide CAT Tax:

https://fb.watch/pduxD7DZiM/?mibextid=2JQ9oc

(posted by Elvis Clark on December 28, 2023)

Former Clackamas sheriff Roberts versus Chair Tootie SmiTh

Clackamas Chair Tootie now faces a formidable opponent in her re-election bid!

Tootie now really has her work cut out for her to beat back the challenge from Craig Roberts.

She leads Clackamas County for the last three years. A fair assessment is that Chair Smith helped guide the County through some real challenges during her nearly three years as Chair - such as finding shelter and care for those Clackamas residents displaced by the 2020 wildfires. Not to mention, she helped steer the County through the second and third years of the Covid Pandemic in 2021 and on into 2022.

During her tenure, Clackamas' homelessness count has dropped much faster than that of neighboring counties. And she has kept her promise to NOT increase taxes for Clackamas residents.

Roberts as Sheriff did have some controversy in his department, as pointed out in this 2017 Oregonian article, link:

Detective ignored rape, abuse cases for years, documents show - oregonlive.com

Craig Roberts files to run for Tootie's Chair Spot in the May 2024 election.

Clackamas Chair Tootie now faces a formidable opponent in her re-election bid!

Craig Roberts was Clackamas County's Sheriff for 16 years and retired from the Sheriff position in 2021. His understudy Angela Brandenburg won the Sheriff position in the election of 2020 and took over from Roberts in January 2021.

Roberts seems like a moderate Democrat. I suspect, though, he would try to increase property taxes and other fees. He will have union support I believe in his bid to defeat Tootie Smith. And so, Roberts will likely dominate Tootie Smith in raising and spending campaign monies.

Maybe he was coaxed to come out of retirement to replace Tootie Smith, because Tootie and other Clackamas Commissioners scaled back Sheriff Bradenburg's budget request - ridding the Sheriff's department of excess, unfilled staff positions. Maybe Sheriff Bradenburg coaxed her former boss to come out of retirement and enter the 2024 election and defeat Chair Smith, so that Bradenburg can restore her department's big budget.

Democrats wanted Tootie Smith and other Clackamas Commissioners to request a property tax increase from voters, so the County wouldn't have to pare back department budgets (Like the Sheriff's Budget). The County faces budget struggles because it is trying, among other things, to finance the building of a new Clackamas Court House to replace the unsafe existing Court House (the existing Court House being nearly 100 years old now). Tootie and other Commissioners stood their ground and didn't press to sharply increase property tax bills.

(posted by Elvis Clark on October 28, 2023)

Clackamas Commissioner Mark Shull files for Re-election

Conservative Commissioners Shull and Tootie Smith are key to keeping order in Clackamas

At this point, Clackamas Chair Tootie Smith has no opponents who have filed to run against her in next May's Board elections.

Commissioner Shull has two opponents so far, and I would say only one significant opponent in Melissa Fireside (Fireside is in photo to right here and Shull's photo is above here).

(posted by Elvis Clark on September 29, 2023)

Melissa Fireside, Psychology Professor, is Shull's significant election challenger

Conservative Commissioners Shull and Tootie Smith are key to keeping order in Clackamas

Psychologist Fireside ran for Lake Oswego City Council in 2020, and lost coming in fourth with 18% of the vote.

But she has the backing of ASCME (government employee) union and has served on Clackamas Committees for government employee compensation and mental health services. So, should be significant opponent for Commissioner Shull.

I should think, though, that Shull can argue that Clackamas is doing pretty well with its current set of commissioners and that Fireside probably would upset the new approach that Clackamas pursues on homelessness, addiction, and mental health. Fireside probably would be quick to raise taxes and the cost of living in Clackamas, too.

Clackamas County Candidates limited so far

Since the 9/14/23 County Elections filing date, only a small number of candidates so far.

To the right here is the list of candidates who have filed so far to run for Clackamas County government positions. Current Chair of the Clackamas County Board of Commissioners, Tootie Smith, has no competitors so far.

Martha Schrader incumbent Clackamas Commissioner has two opponents so far. Martha has strong name recognition, having served as a Clackamas Commissioner for some 18 years now. Joanna Harbour who has unsuccessfully run several times for U.S Congress is one of Schrader's opponents. Amy Nichols - the other opponent so far - has no elected government experience.

Commissioner Mark Shull has not so far indicated if he is running for re-election, running for Tootie's Chair position, or riding off into the sunset of retirement. Rae Gordon is so far, the only one to file to run for Commissioner Shull's seat. But Gordon has no elected government experience, and maybe as certain as night becomes day, the two dominant political parties will field candidates for Shull's seat.

Clackamas Sheriff Brandenburg is likely to be mildly challenged by two retired deputy sheriffs, Lynn Schoenbach and Paul Moore. Schoenback ran against Brandenburg and lost back in 2020. I am not sure about Moore and the black cowboy hat he dawns almost always when out and campaigning.

Neither Schoenbach nor Moore have made their challenge of Brandenburg official yet by filing with Clackamas elections (so they are not listed to the right here but only known to be campaigning informally at this point).

(posted by Elvis Clark on September 24, 2023)

Clackamas County office elections open to filing 9/14/23

Clackamas Chair Tootie Smith is seeking re-election this next May 2024 Primary

Retired Clackamas County Sheriff's Department Sergeant Seeks to unseat Sheriff Bradenburg

Clackamas County Chair Tootie Smith is up for re-election this next year and is kicking off her re-election campaign this next week with a private gathering.

Tootie is a tough-minded gal and has stood by her commitment to not raise taxes even in the face of the County's struggle to fund the replacement of an aging courthouse.

Unfortunately, Tootie stepped on the toes of many passionate Republicans at public hearings when she is maybe too quick to end the hearings because of some mask mandate violations by these Republican faithful and crowd noise. So, these ill feelings by the Clackamas Republican Party faithful against Tootie doesn't bode particularly well for her re-election.

The other seat on the Clackamas Board of Commissioners up for re-election this next year is Commissioner Shull's seat. Commissioner Shull indicates that he will be making his plans known in the next couple of weeks or so.

Retired Clackamas County Sheriff's Department Sergeant Seeks to unseat Sheriff Bradenburg

Lynn Schoenbach is running for Clackamas County Sheriff in next May 2024 primary election. He is a retired Clackamas County Sheriff's sergeant, and also the owner of a martial arts academy (Black Wolf) located in Milwaukie, Oregon.

This academy is frequented by both Milwaukie Police and Clackamas Deputy Sheriffs for training in personal defense.

Schoenback is running not only I think against the current Sheriff Bradenburg, but also a retired state trooper Paul Moore (who routinely dawns a black cowboy hat).

It's Schoenbach's second run at County Sheriff - the first being in 2020.

(posted by Elvis Clark on September 6, 2023)

2024 U.S congress Cd#5 election percolates

Mcleod-Skinner tries again to win Congressional District (Oregon's 5th district)

Lynn Peterson is also competing against Mcleod-Skinner for the Democrat nomination -CD#5

Mcleod-Skinner (Progressive Democrat) lost to Laurie chevez-Deremer (R) in the November 2022 General Election by only a couple of percentage points. McLeod-Skinner lives in Sisters, Oregon, the last I hear.

Mcleod-Skinner has name recognition from the previous contest for CD#5 and slightly won in Clackamas County in the 2022 General Election. But Chevez-Deremer dominated in the Marion County part of CD#5 and was able to edge out McLeod-Skinner in total District wide vote count.

Lynn Peterson is also competing against Mcleod-Skinner for the Democrat nomination -CD#5

Lynn Peterson (Democrat) is the current president of Oregon's Metro regional government, and I think she and her husband might live in Lake Oswego.

Peterson, who is also a former Clackamas County Commissioner, is competing against Mcleod-Skinner and Oregon Representative Janelle Bynum for the Democrat Party May 2024 Primary nomination to run in the November 2024 General Election - for Congressional District 5.

Peterson probably can raise considerable money for campaigning, but a lot of folks in Clackamas County (the key part of District 5) don't have a very high opinion of the Metro government that Peterson leads. Also, Peterson voted in favor of tolling both I-5 and I-205.

Peterson is probably trying to find a new elected office to land in, as she terms out of her Metro President role in 2026.

(posted by Elvis Clark on July 14, 2023)

Oregon House Representative Janelle Bynum competes also for the Dem nom for CD#5

Laurie Chevez-Deremer (CD#5 incumbent, Republican) is seeking re-election next year

Bynum (D) is known around Happy Valley but not so much in the larger parts of Congressional District 5.

Interestingly, Bynum defeated Lauri Chevez-Deremer (current incumbent holding the CD#5 seat) in the 2018 election for Oregon House District 39.

Bynum actually voted against Oregon's road toll legislation.

I think Mcleod-Skinner probably wins in next May's Democrat Party primary against both Peterson and Bynum.

Laurie Chevez-Deremer (CD#5 incumbent, Republican) is seeking re-election next year

Chevez-Deremer lives just outside of Congressional District 5, but election rules allow her to run for the District anyways.

She is a very diligent and engaging Congresswoman and is working to stop the tolling of federal highways I-5 and I-205.

Democrats have about a 5 percentage point edge over Republican registrations in Congressional District 5, and so it is an uphill battle for Chevez-Deremer to win re-election next year. But going in her favor is that she is now an incumbent with experience and engages with Democrat officials in District 5.

She has, also, already secured nearly one million dollars in cash for her re-election bid.

I doubt if Chevez-Deremer faces much primary opposition from Republican candidates this next year.